Tension rising

As the war of words becomes more aggressive between North Korea and the loud mouth Trump, the Guardian cartoonist provides his vision.

A sombre tone from the Guardian editorial:

The US secretary of state, Rex Tillerson
 The US secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, has been playing down Donald Trump’s ‘fire and fury’ message to North Korea. Photograph: Jacquelyn Martin/AP

It is not reassuring when the US secretary of state has to reassure his country that it is not on the brink of war. “I think Americans should sleep well at night,” Rex Tillerson told reporters on Wednesday. He was playing down the incendiary words of his president, who had promised “fire and fury like the world has never seen” in response not to an attack but to mere threats from North Korea. It was “language designed to send a strong message” to Pyongyang, Mr Tillerson said.

A few hours later, the defense secretary, James Mattis, weighed in: North Korea should cease “actions that would lead to the end of its regime and the destruction of its people … [it] would lose any arms race or conflict it initiates”. Starker words than Mr Tillerson’s, but similarly designed to shift towards a more traditional message of deterrence: actions (not just threats) have consequences. Most likely this storm will soon pass. The armistice has held since 1953. The dire warnings after China and others joined the nuclear club proved unfounded. The previous North Korea crises have fizzled out; not least because nuclear weapons concentrate most minds.

But Mr Trump is not most people. The last US president to use this kind of language was Harry Truman, warning after Hiroshima that Japan must accept US terms or “expect a rain of ruin … the like of which has never been seen on this earth”. But that was in a world war, against a non-nuclear opponent.

The rhetoric was strikingly reminiscent of the bluster of North Korea itself. Yet Pyongyang’s bellicose statements are always worth parsing closely. In the past it has threatened the US mainland – even the White House – with nuclear attack if its survival was in doubt. On Wednesday it said it was considering plans to strike around the US Pacific territory of Guam, choosing a lesser target and talking of containing (not hitting) the military base. For all the extravagance of its threats, they are calculated, not cavalier.

In contrast, Mr Trump offers ad-libbed soundbites from the clubhouse of his resort and on Twitter. But as so often in his case, we should take them seriously if not literally. Military options are still under consideration. Experts say that intelligence on North Korea is too poor, and its capabilities too well advanced, to allow for their wholesale destruction in a preemptive strike. The risk of severe retaliation by conventional means alone is immense.

 

Negotiation update for Brexit

The negotiations do not appear to have a clear pathway or desired outcomes as far as the British government as concerned. It seems to be an acknowledged truth that the EU negotiating team are better organised and clearer on the requirements of the process and ‘red lines’- and in the dominant position.

The cartoon below from the Telegraph explains the latest UK version of expectations with a desired transition phase. The announcement was made by the Chancellor rather than by May after more confused position statements from different ministers in the preceding days.

Reality check

Theresa May needs to face reality after the general election result

Now, having suffered the almost unthinkable ignominy of losing the majority she seemed certain to extend, Ms May’s first response shifted from the inane to the delusional. Speaking in Downing Street, the catchphrase morphed this time into “safe and secure”, and she repeated the need for “certainty”. She spoke about an agenda “for the next five years”, as though her position in the role were guaranteed beyond the next five weeks. There was no humility, no good grace; the Prime Minister seemed frankly divorced from reality. Not until she appeared for a second time, apologising to the MPs who had lost their seats, and offering contrite assurance that she will “reflect on what happened”, did Ms May show any sign that she understands the startling reverses her party has suffered.

Let us hope that such reflection helps the Prime Minister understand the crushing changes that have come thick and fast since that exit poll stunned us all. There has been no sign so far of any reassessment of her approach to hard Brexit, yet surely even this leader will struggle to pass off such a humiliating result as a mandate for her confrontational, uncompromising attitude to Europe, or of her willingness to take the UK out of the single market.

The results are in….

So in the end it’s a Hung Parliament.

A surprise and welcome outcome.Theresa May’s historic gamble has failed. She brought on the election at a point in time of strength with a large lead in the polls. It is assumed her strategy was to destroy the Labour Party, possibly weaken the hand of the most rabid Brexiteers in her own party and move the inevitable fall out from the Brexit negotiations from the next expected General Election.

However, she has failed miserably because  an appalling campaign and possibly the unexpected well run campaign of Corbyn and the Labour Party.

She has been weakened but is it enough? She has not resigned and has negotiated an agreement with the Democratic Unionists- a true unsavory crew.

She talked of stability which is the opposite of the current context that her actions have brought about.

Where this all this goes who knows. The is a change in the political tide and this result has been helped with increased participation of younger voters who have been seriously affected by austerity policies in recent years and who are most concerned about the impact of Brexit on their futures. However, there is a real possibility that the status quo will be maintained, under stress, and the shift in the political perspective will come to nil.

Another election soon? Maybe, but that possibly requires greater turmoil in the Conservative ranks. May will hold on for now as the alternative to too dangerous for them?

 

Election-Looking good so far!

Heading for a hung parliament as May faces revolt in party over the results.election-jeremy-corbyn-8.jpg

From the Telegraph:

General Election results live: Shock hung parliament forecast by exit polls and early seats

Fear and politics

In the news is the latest attack in the UK, this time at London Bridge and Borough Market. Death and turmoil again.

Of course the campaign for the General Election is active though with suspension on Sunday it seems. The response so far is as would be expected: condemnations and encouragement for people to remains calm and continue with their lives.

When then attack in Manchester happened last week Corbyn was cricticised from the usual quarters for trying to give context of where these acts may be developed from, as if that is not important.

With this attack along with natural outrage May appears to moving to greater intolerance and attempts at greater control, there is “far too much tolerance of extremism” with further anti-terrorist actions including the old bug-bear of the internet. The Gaurdian interprets this as the move to punish thought-crime.

As ever we here from the top that ‘we will not let terrorists win” while at the same time responding within a narrow formula and restricting society and creating fear that does mean we are all affected and that to me terror does win.

Will it spillover to New Zealand?

The Three Brexiteers

Cabinet ministers David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris Johnson have been nicknamed ‘the three Brexiteers’ for their cavalier approach to the finer details of leaving the EU. The withdrawal process is ‘simple’ and at the same time ‘more complex than a game of chess’, they say, but definitely not as straightforward as a hard or soft boiled egg.