Category: Politics
Vote day
They meaningful arrives today after being delayed from December as Theresa May tried to make the deal more palatable and with an improved change of acceptance by the House of Commons, and in particular, her own party MPs. However, the expectation is that the agreement will be voted down in large numbers. So nothing gained and more time lost.
So what next? All the possible outcomes remain in place with the ‘ no deal’ route the default option if it is not positively voted down. Political fever today. The first voting is this evening and we shall see which way events turn. There are plenty of articles written providing the spectrum of opinions that reflect the options and the divided nation on this very important subject.
By legitimising talk of no deal, May sanitised one of the most toxic ideas in British politics. https://t.co/kyiZXZJSrs— Rafael Behr (@rafaelbehr) December 10, 2018
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/10/no-deal-brexit-theresa-may
Frustration?
I can’t follow anymore. After two years of negotiations, the Tory government wants to delay the vote. Just keep in mind that we will never let the Irish down. This delay will further aggravate the uncertainty for people & businesses. It’s time they make up their mind! #brexit— Guy Verhofstadt (@guyverhofstadt) December 10, 2018
Brexit – saga continues
Pause… to what end?
So today there government has announced that the vote on the exit deal is to be delayed. It is clear the government does not have the support to win the vote. This has been much talked about for the last week. So now we have a delay to allow May to go to Europe looking for more concessions.
However, how realistic is that? The EU has been clear that this is the deal and further negotiations are not on the cards. They have said that for a while, which of course, they would. But is there reason to doubt their position? May has been saying as part of her strategy that the deal is not re-negotiable – and yet…….
This is all so ridiculous. Where is this going?
A deferred inevitable rejection of the deal and more time wasted.
Brexit deal agreed (?)
UK’s Brexit deal agreed by EU leaders
Theresa May says she agrees with EU officials that this “is the best and only deal possible”.
The EU 27 sign along but will the UK Parliament agree? Most commentary says not- for the government the numbers do not stack up it appears. To reach this point after the draft document a week ago the UK has had to deal with last minute demands from the French over fisheries and the Spanish over the status of Gibraltar. It appears the French have managed to exert power over the trade off for fisheries and the May acquiesced to demands of Spain giving the impression of another last minute climb down by the UK.
So where are we in the process? Not sure. Where to when this deal fails in the House of Commons? Though ministers are doing the ‘this is the deal and its failure will lead to fall of the government ( and so Corbyn in fear)’ and the buying off of opposing factions within the Conservative Party.
It is coming to a head but I am not sure where we are going.
The deal and other explainers
No more negotiations?
Brexit: ‘No question’ of further negotiations if Theresa May’s deal rejected, says Merkel
Merkel welcomes deal but hints this is last chance
There is “no question” of further Brexit negotiations if the deal struck by Theresa May is rejected, Angela Merkel has said.
Speaking in Berlin, the German chancellor welcomed the deal but warned a chaotic exit was still possible as a “worst case” scenario.
“We have a document on the table that Britain and the EU 27 have agreed to, so for me there is no question at the moment whether we negotiate further,” the Chancellor said.
Brexiteer options
Today the front page of the Telegraph:
A proposed option proposed is a further renegotiation though how does that have legs? The draft has come from two plus years of negotiation. Is the EU willing to do restart? There is a time limit here as other steps have to fall in place. Another example of the lack of reality.
Plus we have the promotion that ‘no deal’ is all fine. Nothing really to fear. Fear promoted by the ‘establishment’. That coming from Charles Moore! The sniff of desperation from Brexiteers. No one really knows of course as it is the future that one is analysing but the majority of people as concerned about the impact of no deal because the sudden change in rules and agreements will be disruptive-seriously. Brexiteers told us it would all be so easy to reach a deal, achieve what we wanted, all so quickly. That was a pack of lies. Now they promote the idea that a ‘no-deal’ transition will be easy. On the Telegraph podcast one leading ERG member confidently said that the disruption would last only a few months and then all would be fine. I am more inclined to think this is more lies.
Political Upheaval
Just a few notes and links to record the goings on with the current political upheaval. Apparently the most politically momentous day since WW2.
It seems so unreal and less dramatic than that as it has all been coming for so long and the resulting issues and troubles are as one predicted two years ago or more after the referendum result and the reality of what could be offered and negotiated. The draft agreement that the government has reached does not satisfy anyone.
It is possibly the best compromise for a bad idea that could be reached though it is easy to be critical of the whole negotiating method since the onset. Bluster and arrogance followed by realisation and retreat.
So the deal on offer does not satisfy the mad Brexiteers as the links to the EU remain and its influence continues-‘UK being as rule taker and not a rule maker’- so much for taking back control and sovereignty. But compromise is needed in the eyes of most to avoid the ‘hard’/ ‘cliff edge’ Brexit that anyone with any sense sees as leading to chaos and pain in the short to medium term.
Of course the Brexit brigade claim the changes will not be so bad and all will be good in the end. The ‘end’ being possibly 50 years time according to William R-M one of the evangelist exiters who is most certainly ‘all right Jack’ and is in a position to take the shit when it hits the country’s fan.
So much of this is predictable and continues to be impossible to reach a state that satisfies a majority. The arch Brexiters will never be satisfied as they still live in Brexit dream and with no acknowledgement of the potential downsides of the change. They continue to harangue from the sidelines, criticising the negotiation plans and outcomes yet offering nothing as an alternative. When they are in charge- such as Raab and David Davies they resign when they have failed to conjure something that fits their dream and bitterly complain it is someone else’s fault, ie, Theresa May. I note R-M lists the potential Tory party leaders as those Brexiters who have been involved as ministers and resigned- because it all became too difficult to square their dreams and the reality. That does not augur well for their leadership of the future.
Now R-Mogg and co are looking to unseat May through a party no confidence bid. To what end? Is it to take he decision out of Parliament’s hands where they have no majority for a ‘no deal’ Brexit and so try to force a crashing out by default and achieve what they have always wanted? A ‘sovereign ‘ in name country but which will be bossed around by more powerful nations or pressured by any state negotiating because of the UK’s position of weakness through desperation. But they will try to follow through with their neoliberal small state agenda. No regulations, free business oppression of all while claiming they are doing the poor a favour. Nauseating.
A comical look at the state of affairs and how even now cannot admit the ridiculous and impossible demands of the original Brexit campaign which was also evidenced during May’s press conference yesterday afternoon after the prolonged statement to Parliament.
It’s all intrigue and acrimony from the right wing Brexit press without insight into their own failings:
May is continuing to fight her corner– doggedly I suppose but with what expectation.
The possible routes from this point remain multiple. Who knows? Crashing or stopping Brexit through another vote? More change ahead but a wounded May to continue for now I expect but in the end no parliamentary approval of the deal.